MLS Picks: FC Cincinnati @ Philadelphia Union

We’ve got an epic Eastern Conference match this week between the third-placed FC Cincinnati and 11th-placed Philadelphia Union. Cincinnati has been plenty convincing this season, but can they hold off long-time league competitors of the Philadelphia Union? Check out our in-depth review for this weekend’s crazy MLS showdown as we head into matchweek 34 of Major League Soccer.

FC Cincinnati holds strong

Cincinnati has won 17 of their 33 games for a total of 56 points on the standings. In their last 5 games, Cincinnati unfortunately dropped a large sum of points due to tying Nashville (13th) 2-2, losing to LAFC (2nd in West)  2-1, losing to NYCFC (fifth) 3-2, then losing to Orlando City (4th) 3-1. 

FC Cincinnati has been struggling in recent weeks, especially when they should be beating teams lower on the standings. Specifically, players like Luciano Acosta, Luca Orellano, and Yuya Kubo will need to ramp up their efforts, considering they all sit at 14, 10 and 10 goals respectively, yet still failing to achieve victory over teams with fewer points.

While it appears on paper that FC Cincinnati is the stronger of the two teams, they are not in form, meaning they’ll need to hit their stride to win or run the risk of falling down the hill. Still, sitting in third place in the East is no easy feat, and Cincinnati will still be the slight favorite by the start of this match.

The Union looks to climb

Unfortunately for Philadelphia, they’ve only won nine of their 33 matches played for a total of 37 points, sitting in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference standings in 11th place. In mid-September, the Union destroyed NYCFC 5-1, before dominating DC United and the MLS top goal scorer, Christian Benteke, in a 4-1 victory. Anyone would look at this and think this was the start to an intense win streak, having scored nine goals in two games, yet it took a fired-up Atlanta United to end any hopes in a 1-1 draw. In their last two games, the Union have fallen to Orlando 2-1 and the Columbus Crew 3-2.

If Union’s Daniel Gazdag can put the pedal to metal with his already 17 goals (tied for fifth in the league), the Union can make this game a living hell for Cincinnati. While their defense is solid, it’s Philadelphia’s intense offensive talent that can outshine their opponents, so as long as the Union can retain their high-goal-scoring form, they may have a chance of coming out victorious.

FC Cincinnati @ Philadelphia Union MLS Picks

FC Cincinnati hasn’t performed particularly well in their last four games, so it’s important to take their form into account when looking at a victor. Many believe this will be the game for Philadelphia to make the climb back up the table, as now is the perfect opportunity to beat the struggling third-place team.

Considering how rough Cincinnati has had it in the last several games, the Union should be more than capable of getting the better of their opponents in this one, with the hope that Gazdag can lead the way with an early goal or two. Both teams have had losing run-ins with the East’s fourth-placed Orlando with similar outcomes (3-1 and 2-1 losses). Looking at our MLS data analysis of the past 33 match weeks, Philadelphia Union look more than capable of coming out hot in this one and finding the net at least twice, specifically by taking advantage of Cincinnati’s recent out-of-form performances.

Our pick: Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals