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UFC 314 blasts off this weekend with another frenetic set of featherweight and lightweight main events. Witness Rodriguez takes on Pitbull, and Chandler takes on Pimblett, leading into the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes in the octagon at 10 PM ET.
We’ve got a boatload to cover in this preview, so feel free to review our picks and decide whether it’s something you want to back or ignore!
Mexican fighter Yair Rodriguez takes to the arena tonight with a 16-5-0 record against the experienced Brazilian MMA fighter Patricio Pitbull. He carries a 36-7-0 record and is making his first real UFC debut in this featherweight bout. Rodriguez is coming off a fresh loss, although he boasts a whopping 5” height difference, in addition to a 71” reach over Pitbull’s 67 “ reach.
Yair Rodriguez likes to take the fight to his opponent with his feet planted, landing 4.65 significant strikes per minute versus Pitbull’s 2.84, although both rep a 40%+ significant strike rate with nearly 4.0 absorbed per minute (Pitbull absorbs slightly more at 4.43 per minute).
While both fighters showcase similar defense (52% and 60% respectively) and favor striking over grappling, Pitbull is nearly impossible to take down with a takedown defense at 94% over his 43 Bellator MMA fights. Rodriguez has 8 wins by knockout and 5 by decision, while Pitbull boasts 12 wins by knockout and 12 by submission, with 12 of his victories coming in the first round.
Rodriguez is statistically a better striker, but we think Pitbull will last the entire 5 rounds in this one to take the win by decision despite the reach deficit.
Up next is the highly anticipated lightweight bout between American Michael Chandler (23-9-0) and Englishman Paddy Pimblett (22-3-0). Chandler is coming off a loss in his most recent fight, while Pimblett is coming off a fresh victory. Pimblett (5’ 10”) stands just 2” taller than his American opponent, giving him just a 1.5” reach advantage.
Both fighters can dish it where it counts, with Chandler landing 4.49 significant strikes per minute versus Pimblett’s 4.94 (50%+ significant strike rate for both fighters). Their striking defenses are nearly identical, with Chandler able to absorb slightly more significant strikes per minute at 4.3 (versus Pimblett’s 3.75). Chandler reps a 37% takedown accuracy with 1.59 attempts per 15 minutes versus the Englander’s 0.91, and the American is harder to take down with a 63% takedown defense.
Despite this difference, Pimblett boasts 45% of his wins by submission, whereas Chandler boasts 48% of his wins (11) by KO/TKO, with more than half his victories finishing in the first round. Even so, Pimblett is on a hot eight-fight win streak, and if he can manage to weaken Chandler before a takedown, we expect him to take this one by submitting the American.
For this Saturday’s main featherweight title bout (vacant title), we have the Australian fighter Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) taking to the octagon against Brazilian Deigo Lopes (26-6-0). Volkanovski is coming off a loss in his most recent bout and stands an entire 5” shorter than his Brazilian counterpart, who boasts a 1.5” reach advantage and a win in his last fight. To make matters even tougher for the Australian, Lopes’s leg reach stretches a whole 5” over Volkanovski’s 36” leg reach.
Even though Volkanovski stumbled after getting knocked out in 2 rounds against 16-0 Illia Topuria more than a year ago, the Australian fighter lands a whopping 6.16 significant strikes per minute compared to Lopes’s 4.2. Additionally, both fighters come in with around a 55% significant strike rate.
Their defenses are similar, with Volkanovski (58%) absorbing 3.44 strikes per minute versus Lopes’s 4.11 (50%), although the Australian showcases a much better takedown defense at 72% compared to the Brazilian’s 52%. Volkanovski not only dishes out more strikes but attempts more takedowns on average per 15 minutes at 1.78, whereas Lopes averages a higher number of submissions per 15 minutes at 2.76. While 50% of Volkanovski’s wins come from KO/TO versus Lopes’s 38%, Lopes has a significantly higher win-by-submission record at 46% against the Australian’s 12%.
All things considered, Diego Lopes’ reach advantage will net him the featherweight title with a win-by decision at the end of round 5.
Liam has been a major sports fan and soccer player for over a decade, with a particular focus on major top-level soccer leagues, including the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and MLS. He has written numerous promotional articles for various top sportsbooks and continues to publish historical and factual sports articles covering the NFL, MLS, NHL, MLB, EPL and more.