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The Tampa Bay Lightning, currently in third place in the NHL’s Atlantic Division, host the Boston Bruins tomorrow afternoon on ABC at 3 PM ET.
The Lightning are the hottest team in the league, having won 10 of their last 11 games, including a 6-5 comeback decision over the Buffalo Sabres last night. Tampa Bay has made the Stanley Cup playoffs each of the past seven seasons and won it all back-to-back in 2020 and 2021.
Boston is going in the opposite direction, having lost 8-of-9. That includes a heartbreaking 3-2 defeat in Carolina to the Hurricanes last night. Boston has lost 12 of its last 14 road games. Tampa Bay has won seven straight and 8-of-9 at Amalie Arena, where they are playing tomorrow evening.
The teams split their first two meetings in January. The Lightning picked up a 4-1 win at home thanks to a goal and an assist from Brandon Hagel, two assists from Ryan McDonagh, and 27 saves from five-time All-Star and former Vezina and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevsky.
Boston responded at home a few days later with a dominant 6-2 win highlighted by a goal and two assists each from David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha and 43 saves from Jeremy Swayman.
These two division rivals now play two more contests this week to close their regular season series. Let’s break down each team’s recent play while previewing this matchup and our Bruins @ Lightning NHL pick.
The Bruins, a franchise that has reached the Stanley Cup playoffs each of the last eight seasons, are rocketing down the standings. The team is now 28-28-2 and has lost 10 of its previous 13 games. With 64 points, the team is in seventh in the Atlantic Division, on the outside looking in.
Seven of Boston’s losses during this stretch have been by just one goal, two by overtime shootout. That includes last night’s loss to the Hurricanes, where the winning goal was scored with 18.6 seconds left.
So, the team is there but cannot get over the hump. Their 172 goals scored are the second-worst in the East. David Pastrnak is having another banner season. His 32 goals are tied for fourth and his 78 points are good for fifth in the NHL. But the next closest point scorer, veteran Brad Marchand, has just 47 points.
To top it off, starting goaltender Swayman has performed poorly following the signing of an 8-year, $66-million extension at the season’s outset. After finishing in the top 10 in both goals allowed average and save percentage during the 2023-24 season, he has fallen to 43rd in GAA (3.00) and a tie for 36th in save percentage (.896).
They struggled earlier in the season, but the Lightning are picking up the pace at the right time. The team is 37-21-4 overall for 78 total points, just three points behind the division-leading Florida Panthers, and they have won 10 of their last 11 contests. The Lightning have scored a league-leading 224 goals and their +59 goal differential trails only the conference-leading Washington Capitals in the East. And with Vasilevsky in net, the team has allowed just 165 goals, third best in the East behind the New Jersey Devils and Capitals.
Nikita Kucherov, the five-time All-Star and 2018-19 Hart Memorial Trophy winner is second on the team in assists (64) and third in points (92) this season. Hagel (70 points), Point (65 points) and Jake Guentzel (63 points) are all in the top-25 in scoring. Guentzel had the ninth hat trick of his career in the win over Buffalo last night.
Vasilevsky is second in the league with a 2.18 GAA and third in save percentage, stopping more than 92% of the shots he has faced this season. He made 27 saves in the win over the Sabres yesterday.
In the last nine games at home, the Lightning have outscored their opponents 37-16, posting two shutouts in the process.
It’s hard to argue against two overwhelming stats right now. The Bruins can’t get a win on the road, and the Lightning are close to unbeatable at home. Tampa Bay handled the Bruins by three goals the last time the two teams met in Amalie Arena, and the expectation is for a similar result to occur tomorrow night.
Kucherov has three assists in two games against the Bruins this season, and 12 assists in his last nine games overall. Look for him to add to that tally.
Brian has been writing about sports professionally for 25 years, specializing in the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, men's college basketball and football, and soccer. He covered high school, collegiate and professional sports in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area for two decades. His written work has appeared in several print and online publications since 1999.