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The NFL playoffs kick into gear next weekend with six Wild Card games. In the NFC, the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders make their first playoff appearance in four seasons when they travel to Tampa Bay and take on the No. 3 seed Buccaneers Sunday night at 8 PM ET on NBC.
This is the second time the teams have met this season in Tampa Bay, with the Buccaneers besting the Commanders in a season-opening matchup, 37-20. Both teams are playing their best football of the season. Washington has won five straight to post its first double-digit win campaign since 2012. The Commanders’ 12 wins are the most for the franchise since 1991-92, the last time Washington won the Super Bowl.
The Buccaneers are just as hot, winning two straight and 6-of-7 to close the season at 10-7. Tampa Bay won the NFC South for the fourth straight season, and this is the first time in franchise history that the Buccaneers have been to the postseason five straight years.
These two share some playoff history. The Buccaneers are 2-1 against Washington in the postseason. They knocked out the Commanders in the team’s previous postseason appearance four years ago, but Washington’s last playoff win in 2005 came against Tampa Bay. The Commanders have lost four straight Wild Card games since.
Let’s break down each team’s recent play while previewing this Wild Card matchup and making a Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick.
The rebirth in the nation’s capital began with the selection of QB Jayden Daniels in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and the hiring of Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as head coach.
Despite the 17-point season-opening loss at Tampa Bay, the Commanders jumped out to a 4-1 start, and Daniels quickly established himself as a bonafide Rookie-of-the-Year candidate. The LSU product and 2023 Heisman Trophy winner threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and led the team rushing with 891 yards, adding 6 more scores on the ground.
After a three-game losing streak to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles and Cowboys left the team at 7-5, Washington trounced the Tennessee Titans 42-19 before closing the season with four straight heart-stopping wins that all came down to the waning seconds or even overtime.
In the season finale, QB Marcus Mariota came off the bench to relieve Daniels, who was treated with caution following some leg soreness. Mariota, a Heisman Trophy winner, threw for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for 56 yards and another score to lead the team. His five-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin with three seconds left gave the Commanders a 23-19 victory over the Cowboys.
The Buccaneers’ win over Washington to open the season was a harbinger of things to come for Baker Mayfield. The former reclamation project dazzled in his second season under center for Tampa Bay. Baker went 24-for-30 for 289 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Washington. That was just the start for Mayfield, who finished tied for second with 41 touchdown passes and third with 4,500 yards. Despite missing out on his second straight Pro Bowl appearance (for now), Mayfield has revitalized his career and helped Tampa Bay move on from Tom Brady.
The Buccaneers needed a win in their season finale to clinch that fifth straight playoff appearance, as the Atlanta Falcons were lingering in a fight for the division crown. RB Bucky Irving, a fourth-round selection out of Oregon in the 2024 NFL Draft and a revelation this season, scored on an 11-yard touchdown run with under two minutes remaining to secure the Buccaneers’ 27-19 victory over the New Orleans Saints. Tampa Bay scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to erase a 19-13 Saints advantage.
Irving rushed for 89 yards in the game, totaling 1,122 yards and 8 touchdowns in his rookie season. WR Mike Evans had 74 catches for 1,004 yards and 11 touchdowns. The future Hall of Famer has now posted 11 straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start his career, tying legend Jerry Rice for the most ever.
This is just the kind of primetime Wild Card matchup fans deserve. Two teams peaking at the right time and are willing to go at each other. Washington went 5-3 on the road this season, including the loss at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are just 5-4 at home, although they have won their last three.
Daniels went 17-for-24 for 184 yards and rushed for 88 yards against Tampa Bay in his professional debut. He did not pass or run for a touchdown in the 17-point defeat, but he also exhibited the poise in the pocket that has now become commonplace for the Pro Bowl selection.
McLaurin, a somewhat underappreciated wideout like Evans, posted his fifth-straight 1,000-yard campaign. His production in this game will be critical, as the Commanders’ running game has stalled. Outside of Daniels, and Mariota, Austin Ekeler was the team’s leading rusher against Dallas in Week 18, with 12 yards.
The Buccaneers have a stronger balance offensively, with Irving getting the tough yards, but the game will most likely come down to Mayfield’s arm. His 16 interceptions led the NFL in an age when throwing deep is consistently frowned upon. He’s one of the few viable gunslingers left, and that could keep Washington in the contest, but it could also give Tampa Bay the victory.
Mayfield averaged 264 yards passing per game this season but upped those numbers to 293 over the last five games. Look for Mayfield to continue that recent upgrade and throw for 275 or more yards Sunday night.
Brian has been writing about sports professionally for 25 years, specializing in the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, men's college basketball and football, and soccer. He covered high school, collegiate and professional sports in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area for two decades. His written work has appeared in several print and online publications since 1999.