Loading...
The Miami Heat travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks in an Eastern Conference showdown tonight. The Knicks (42-24) currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference, while the Heat (29-38) hold the ninth spot (still in the play-in) and are desperately trying to get their season back on track. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses and will look to get back on track in this marquee matchup.
The Heat have been in freefall, losing seven straight games and going just 2-8 in their last ten. Their most recent outing was a dismal 125-91 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Miami ranks 22nd in offensive rating and plays at one of the slowest paces in the league (28th in pace of play), often relying on their defense to keep games close.
With Jimmy Butler traded and Nikola Jovic still out until the end of this month, the Heat have lacked offensive firepower. Tyler Herro has particularly struggled in March, shooting below 33% from three-point range. In Miami’s last matchup with New York on March 2nd, Herro went just 2-of-11 from deep and 8-of-24 overall. However, Bam Adebayo has been a bright spot, averaging 21.1 points and 10 rebounds per game this month. In the last meeting with the Knicks, he put up 30 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Rookie big man Kel’el Ware also made his presence felt with 12 points, 8 rebounds and 6 blocks.
Defensively, Miami remains solid, ranking 12th in defensive rating and third in opponent free throw rate. They rank 26th in offensive rebounding but fifth in defensive rebounding. If Miami wants to keep this game competitive, they’ll need to find a way to generate more offense while continuing to rely on their defensive strengths.
The Knicks have been one of the more consistent teams in the East this season, but they’ve hit some bumps recently, going 5-5 in their last ten games. They are coming off a tough 97-94 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday and will continue to be without Jalen Brunson until at least March 28th.
New York’s success has come from its balanced approach. They rank 5th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating while playing at the 25th-slowest pace in the league. Their strength lies in their ability to score inside, ranking third in percentage of points coming from two-point shots. However, they struggle defending the three-point line, ranking 28th in opponent three-point percentage.
With Karl-Anthony Towns struggling to get clean looks in the last meeting between these two teams, scoring just 19 points after dropping 44 in their first matchup, and with the Heat’s defense and physical frontcourt zeroing in on him with Brunson out, the Knicks will need others to step up. Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby will likely play significant roles in carrying the scoring load. If the Knicks can limit Miami’s three-point shooting and control the paint, they should be in a good position to win at home.
This game will be a defensive battle, given the Heat’s recent struggles on offense, Brunson out for the Knicks, and each team’s slow pace of play. Miami’s ability to defend without fouling (third in opponent free throw rate) should help them limit easy points for the Knicks. Meanwhile, New York’s ability to score inside may be tested by the Heat’s frontcourt pairing of Adebayo and Ware.
The key for Miami will be Herro’s ability to break out of his slump. He’s shot the ball poorly in March but has performed well against the Knicks earlier in the season. With Brunson out, New York will rely on a collective effort to generate offense, meaning Bridges and Hart need to step up.
This should be a close, grind-it-out game, potentially coming down to the final minutes. While the Knicks have been the better team this season, Miami’s desperate situation and defensive toughness could allow them to keep it within reach.
Herro has recorded 34 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds in one game against the Knicks this season and 22 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds in the other. Given his high usage and volume of shot attempts, this could be the game where he snaps out of his shooting slump.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.