Loading...
The final Eastern Conference Play-In game tips off Friday at 7 PM ET as the Miami Heat travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. The winner secures the No. 8 seed and a trip to face the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, beginning on Sunday.
While the Hawks boast home-court advantage and an extra day of rest, the Heat enter this game surging – clicking at the right time with a mix of veteran poise, defensive discipline and offensive confidence.
Don’t let Miami’s 37-45 regular season record fool you. This is a team that’s figured something out when it matters most. The Heat dismantled the Bulls in Chicago on Wednesday night, 109-90, holding the league’s fastest and one of the hottest teams to just 27% from beyond the arc and under 40% from the field overall. It was a defensive clinic — but the offense was just as impressive.
Tyler Herro dropped a game-high 38 points on 13-of-19 shooting, including 3-of-7 from three and 9-of-10 from the charity stripe. He’s added a deadly floater to his game this year and now looks as comfortable scoring in the lane as he does pulling up from deep. Bam Adebayo delivered a classic Bam performance: a double-double with physicality on both ends. Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell – both new additions since the trade deadline – combined for 35 points, with Mitchell also dishing 9 assists. Their energy off the bench gave Miami a serious edge.
The Heat are now 8th in offensive rating and 3rd in three-point shooting percentage (40.9%) over the last 15 games. And defensively, they’ve remained elite. Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks 9th in defensive rating, and in the latest 15 games, they rank 4th. The key against the Hawks offense is limiting fast break and second-chance points. The Heat rank 2nd in limiting free throw attempts, 3rd in defensive rebounding and top-10 in points allowed off turnovers,
With a stable rotation and clearly defined roles, this team looks ready to scrap its way into the postseason.
The Hawks (40-42) enter this matchup after a 120-95 loss in Orlando on Tuesday in their first Play-In game, losing out on the No. 7 seed. Despite 28 points from Trae Young, fueled by 11 made free throws, Atlanta struggled on both ends. They shot just 19% from three and under 40% from the field overall and allowed the Magic’s bench duo of Cole Anthony and Anthony Black to run wild.
It’s been that kind of season for the Hawks: streaky offense and unreliable defense. Since the All-Star break, they rank 6th in offensive rating but 21st in defensive rating. Their up-tempo style (6th in pace post-break) generates scoring chances but often leaves them vulnerable in transition and slow to rotate on the perimeter.
That’s bad news against a Heat team that thrives on making the extra pass and exploiting late closeouts. Atlanta is 28th in three-point percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 37.7% from beyond the arc — something Miami already took advantage of twice during the regular season.
The Hawks will look to control the glass and get easy points in the paint and at the free-throw line. They’re top-10 in offensive rebounding and rely heavily on fastbreaks and second-chance opportunities. But as cited, Miami’s defense is built to neutralize Atlanta’s strengths.
Injury-wise, big man Clint Capela remains a game-time decision after missing over a month. That’s a major question mark for Atlanta’s interior defense and rebounding. Jalen Johnson, who torched Miami earlier in the season, remains out for the year, and the team traded away De’Andre Hunter at the deadline. Depth has been an issue, especially on the defensive end.
These teams split the season series 2-2, each winning both home games by double digits. But context matters. In the first game played in Atlanta, Hunter and Johnson dominated for the Hawks, and in the second game, Herro had one of his very worst performances of the season.
In the two most recent matchups in Miami, the Heat’s revamped roster looked far more cohesive. They shot over 54% from three in both games and won comfortably, including a 131-109 win in February and a 122-112 win in late March.
Trae Young can catch fire, but he’s been notably less efficient at home, shooting under 40% from the field and just 32% from three in Atlanta. Miami, meanwhile, has shown it can execute on the road, with Herro averaging 24.8 PPG away from home and Bam anchoring one of the league’s most consistent defenses.
The contrasting styles also favor the Heat. Miami plays at the 27th-ranked pace, and Atlanta wants to run. We just saw the Heat shut down the league’s fastest team in Chicago. Slowing the game down, limiting the transition look, and turning every possession into a half-court battle favors the visitors.
For our pick, we expect Tyler Herro to have another big game. Herro has 31+ points and assists in three of four games against the Hawks this season, including performances of 38, 34 and 40 combined points and assists. He’s done it in 8 of his last 11 games overall, and his current confidence and usage rate make this a spot to watch. If Miami’s going to punch their ticket to the playoffs, it’ll be Herro’s offense leading the way.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.