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The Western Conference Play-In Tournament begins tonight as the Golden State Warriors host the Memphis Grizzlies in the 7 vs 8 matchup at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California (10 PM ET, TNT). The winner locks in the No. 7 seed and an official playoff date with the second-seeded Houston Rockets on Sunday while the loser will face an elimination game on Friday against the winner of the Sacramento Kings vs the Dallas Mavericks.
Though both the Grizzlies and Warriors finished with identical 48–34 records, they couldn’t be heading into this Play-In clash on more opposite trajectories.
Things looked promising for the Memphis Grizzlies earlier this season. By the All-Star break, they sat at 36–18 and appeared poised to secure a top-four seed. But things unraveled fast. The Grizzlies stumbled to a 12–16 record down the stretch, culminating in a late-season coaching change and a desperate search for stability heading into the postseason.
Despite a flurry of nagging injuries, Memphis expects to be at full strength tonight. Ja Morant (shoulder), Jaren Jackson Jr. (back), Zach Edey (ankle) and Desmond Bane (adductor) are all listed as day-to-day but should 100% be available.
The bad news? Since the All-Star break, Memphis has cratered in efficiency metrics: 17th in offensive rating and just 18th in defensive rating league-wide. Their defensive profile has taken a major hit, as they rank 24th in opponent three-point attempts, 26th in opponent 3P% and 28th in free throw attempts allowed. For a team that likes to push the pace, those defensive numbers are tough to survive against elite half-court offenses.
Morant has averaged 19.9 points over his last 10 games, and Jackson continues to put up strong numbers (22.2 PPG, 5.6 REB, 1.5 BLK), but cohesion has been lacking. The Grizzlies may have the individual firepower, but they haven’t looked like a complete unit in weeks.
On the flip side, Golden State is surging. Since entering the All-Star break at 28–27, the Warriors ripped off a 20–7 finish, looking every bit like a playoff-tested powerhouse. After a heartbreaking OT loss to the Clippers on Sunday bumped them from the No. 6 seed to the Play-In, they now face what many consider a more favorable situation against Memphis and then Houston, if they win, rather than the No. 3 seed Lakers with Luka Doncic and LeBron James.
This late-season surge is no fluke. Golden State ranks 7th in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating since the break. They’re among the NBA’s top two in both three-point attempts and percentage of points from three, and their defensive rotations have tightened thanks to the renewed focus of veterans like Draymond Green and the addition of Jimmy Butler.
Stephen Curry has been locked in, averaging 26.9 PPG over his last 10 games, and his recent explosion against Memphis on April 1 – 52 points on 12-of-20 from deep – looms large in this matchup. The midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler has paid major dividends, too. He poured in 27 points and went 12-for-12 from the line in that same April 1 contest, while Green posted a triple-double.
The Warriors are not just getting by, they’re clicking. The team’s identity is clear: shoot efficiently, defend ferociously and let Curry and Butler take over in crunch time. They’ve transformed from a fringe playoff team into a legit threat, and they’ll be playing at home, where their defense tightens even more.
The regular season series ended 3–1 in favor of the Warriors, with two wins coming without Curry in the lineup. That lone Memphis win came during Golden State’s midseason funk, long before Butler arrived and the team rediscovered its form.
Now, Golden State enters this game with confidence, rhythm and veteran experience. Memphis brings star talent and high tempo, but their shaky defense and recent instability are red flags. Even with a (likely) fully healthy roster, the Grizzlies have been trending the wrong way, and it’s tough to suddenly flip that switch against a playoff-hardened group like the Warriors.
Look for Curry to exploit Memphis’ weaknesses once again, especially in transition and from beyond the arc, and for Butler’s steadying presence to lift Golden State into a comfortable lead late.
Curry’s recent 52-point showcase and the Grizzlies’ struggles defending the perimeter make this a strong spot for another high-scoring night from the two-time MVP.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.