NFL Pick’em: Your Ultimate Guide

NFL Fantasy Pick’em games are one of the most popular DFS options out there, and in this article we are going to explain just how they work. At SportsMillions you can back your favorite NFL teams and players to win real money, and on this page we are going to give you all the information you need to get started right away.

We will cover just how to make your picks, share some tips for success, and explain the different over/under markets along with guides to past performances.

Let’s start with a beginners guide to NFL Pick’em.

How to Play NFL Pick’em at SportsMillions

The basic idea of NFL Pick’em is that you are given a statistic, such as passing or rushing yards, and need to predict whether the player or team will go higher or lower than that number. Let’s take a closer look with our step-by-step guide.

1. Create a free SportsMillions account in a couple of minutes.
2. Claim your welcome offer.
3. Deposit funds to your account by credit/debit card.
4. Choose Pick’em if it is available in your state.
5. Select NFL from the list of sports available.
6. Choose teams or players.
7. Make Higher/Lower picks – minimum of 2 picks to a maximum of 12 for a x1500 payout.
8. Go to My Entries to follow your picks live after the games start.
9. Winning amounts will automatically be credited to your SportsMillions account.

NFL Fantasy Pick’em Tips

In order to succeed at making your NFL picks it is wise to bear a few factors in mind before choosing your higher/lower pick. NFL DFS picks involve a variety of factors, and we will go through the different market options in the next section. Before then, let’s look at some of the ways you can improve your chances of success:

• Historical Data

Learn from the past, whether that is last season or last week in the NFL. The past cannot predict the future, but it can certainly provide some strong indicators as to how particular teams and players are likely to perform in a given situation.

• Expert Tips

There are plenty of people out there making a living from predicting the outcome of football games, but over time you will start to see a consensus around certain games or players. Read as much as you can in advance of the game, including our own expert NFL picks section as well, of course!

• Injury Reports

This is a crucial aspect of making fantasy football picks that should never be ignored. Players out on IR, those coming back from injury and the players replacing starters can all hugely influence both the outcome of games and strategy within those games.

• Join Forums

There are plenty of NFL Fantasy football communities out there on spaces like Reddit and Discord which can provide tips you may not get elsewhere. The famous ‘wisdom of crowds’ should be tapped into to give you direction ahead of your picks.

• Balance Risk and Return

When playing NFL Pick’em, there is a balance to be struck between risk and return. When you make your picks at SportsMillions, for example, a minimum of 2 higher/lower picks returns three times your entry amount, while you can go up to 12 picks for a 1500x return. Choose the right balance and the right picks to optimize your chances of success.

• Watch Football!

If you are reading this then the suggestion to watch more football is probably one we don’t need to stress too much! There are plenty of ways to catch up on games you may not have seen live, and even condensed highlights can give you an idea of how well a particular QB, running back or wide receiver is performing.

Higher/Lower Pick Options:

There are a number of stats available to NFL Pick’em players at SportsMillions, covering a variety of actions that can take place during a game. Not all of them will be available for every game, but below you’ll find a full list of fantasy higher/lower options. We have also included a Form Guide so that you can get an idea of how teams did in the 2023/24 season for all of these Pick’em options:

Field Goals Made:

• Use your knowledge of a team’s kicker to decide whether he will make more or less than a given number of field goals. You will also have to take into account the coaches strategy and how likely a team is to kick for goal in a given situation.
• Form Guide: The Jets and Cowboys averaged just over 2 field goals made per game in the 2023 NFL regular season, while the Bills were bottom of the pile with a game average of 1.41.

Kicking Points:

• Another kicker-based fantasy pick, this time you must decide whether the total number of points kicks – including PATs – will exceed the number given for your game.
• Form Guide: The Cowboys were the only team to average more than 9 points from kicks over the 2023 regular season, with the majority of teams scoring between 6.5 and 7.5 per game.

Passing Attempts:

• How many times will a particular quarterback attempt to throw the ball? Your knowledge of the QB and the team’s offensive strategy will help you to make your pick.
• Form Guide: Dallas and Seattle made most pass attempts in 2023, with over 38 apiece. The Vikings, Steelers and Eagles were bottom of the list with around 27 attempts per game.

Passing Completions:

• This fantasy stat is all about completed catches, so now players need to look at QB-wide receiver combos. Check out data for games earlier in the NFL season before selecting higher or lower.
• Form Guide: Dallas topped the list again in 2023, with 26.1 pass completions per game. Seven NFL teams averaged less than 20 per game, with the Titans rock bottom with a 17.9 average.

Passing Touchdowns:

• Following on from the completions stat, how many passing touchdowns will a team make during the game? Every NFL team will have a different approach, often determined by the opposition and where the game is taking place.
• Form Guide: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys top this fantasy NFL stat for the 2023/24 season with 2.2 per game. No other team managed to top 2 per game on average, with the Jets bottom with 0.6 TDs per game over the season.

Passing Yards:

• If you reckon a team is likely to take to the air more often, then you want to make the higher pick on passing yards. This stat is also available for games, when you combine the stats of both teams, so two big-armed quarterbacks can boost the number of passing yards.
• Form Guide: Only 5 teams managed over 250 passing yards per game in 2023: the Cowboys, Dolphins, Lions, 49ers and Vikings. Teams at the bottom of the NFL charts tended to have weaker play at QB, with the Panthers, Giants and Jets making up the bottom 3 with around a 170 average.

Receiving + Rushing Touchdowns:

• Where a good team meets a bad one, wise Pick’em players will choose the Higher option for this stat. The NFL has featured some major blowouts over the years, when teams have run up a big score on the opposition. When this stat applies to the combined score of two teams, hit the ‘higher’ when two free-scoring teams with shaky defenses meet.
• Form Guide: San Fran and Detroit both averaged 3.5 TDS per game in 2023. Experienced NFL-watchers won’t be surprised to see the Panthers and Jets at the wrong end of this stat, averaging less than 1.5 touchdowns a game.

Receiving + Rushing Yards:

• This higher/lower pick measures combined offensive yards scored by a team or during a game as a whole. The best teams in the NFL can expect to average more than 350 per game.
• Form Guide: In 2023 San Francisco led the league with almost 400 yards per game, with the Panthers bottom of the chart with an average of 265 yards.

Receiving Touchdowns:

• This DFS NFL stat is one for the premier wide-outs on the field. Select a player or team you expect to have hot hands to make the over here.
• Form Guide: In 2023/24 the most TD receptions by a receiver were 14-apiece by Hill of the Dolphins and Evans from the Bucs. Generally this pick will have an higher/lower of 0.5 so should be based on the form of the player and tendency to go to particular receivers in the red zone.

Receiving Yards:

• Look for the team with star players under center to pick up the greatest receiving yards, especially if they are up against a team with a below-par secondary.
• Form Guide: Only two players averaged over 100 yards per game in the 2023 season, with the 100^th ranked player managing just over 30 per game.

Receptions:

• How many receptions will your chosen player or team make in a game? Knowing which receivers are favored by the QB is important here, as well as which teams go to the air more often.
• Form Guide: The top 12 receivers in the NFL averaged 12 or more receptions per game, while Sam LaPorta (Detroit) in 100^th for this stat had an average 2.86 receptions over the course of the season.

Rushing Attempts:

• A good running back is worth his weight in gold in the NFL, and that’s true when it comes to making your fantasy picks too. When a second-string QB is called into action teams may turn to the running game to pick up yards.
• Form Guide: In the 2023/24 season the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears each averaged more than 31 rushing attempts per game. Most teams went to the ground game over 25 times a game, but the Washington Commanders had the lowest stat of just 21.1 attempts per game on average.

Rushing Touchdowns:

• The offensive line is a crucial determiner in allowing the run game to flourish. Look out for teams who rely on the run game in the red zone if you plan on picking the higher option here.
• Form Guide: Detroit led the league by averaging 1.7 rushing TDs per game in 2023, while 22 out of 32 teams in the NFL scored fewer than one rushing touchdown per game on average.

Rushing Yards:

• Teams favoring the ground game score big here, and that includes those squads with a quarterback who can run hard when the pocket collapses.
• Form Guide: The Ravens have a strong-running QB in Lamar Jackson, which helped them top the NFL charts in 2023 with an average 156.4 yards per game rushing. The next best was the Bears on 141.1, with the injury-hit Cincinnati Bengals in last place with an 89.8 average.

Tackles Plus Assists:

• This is a DFS stat where the best teams don’t always come out on top, as weaker opponents may be required to make more tackles. Plus a tackle counts just the same in the stats book whether it is for no gain or a big loss. Aggressive defenses tend to make fewer tackles, as possessions often result either in scores or takeaways.
• Form Guide: The median number of tackles per team in 2023 was 61. Seattle came out on top with 68.2 per game, with the Browns in last place on 51.6 tackles.

Stats Guide for NFL Fantasy Picks

In the following table we take a look at selected average stats averaged out over the 2023/24 NFL Regular Season. Individual player statistics will vary but this should help you to get an idea of what to expect from teams ahead of a game week.

Statistic	Average (per Team)
Passing Attempts	34.5
Passing Yards	216.4 yards
Passing Completions	21.4
Passing Touchdowns	1.5
Rushing Yards	116.9 yards
Rushing Touchdowns	0.9
Receiving Yards	216.4 yards
Touchdowns (Total)	2.3
Field Goals Made	1.7
Points Kicked	7.3
Tackles Made	60-70

NFL Fantasy Pick’em FAQs:

Q: What happens if one of my selected players gets injured?

• If one of your chosen players gets injured and is unable to start the game then this stat will be removed from your picks at SportsMillions.

Q: Can I change my picks before the game kicks off?

• Once you have made your NFL picks and clicked the ‘Play’ button they cannot be changed or cancelled.

Q: How many NFL picks can I make?

• You must make a minimum of 2 picks (for a x3 payout) up to a maximum of 12 picks (for a x1500 payout).

Q: Does every pick need to be correct for me to win?

• You can choose Fixed Play or Flex Play (if this option is available). With Fixed Play all of your picks must be correct to pay out, and with Flex Play one pick can be incorrect and you still win a payout.

Q: Is NFL Pick’em available in my state?

• If you are located in one of the following stakes then you can play the SportsMillions NFL Pick’em game: Alaska, District of Columbia, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin.