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One of college basketball’s most storied rivalries renews today, as the North Carolina Tar Heels (13-9, 6-4 ACC) visit the #2 Duke Blue Devils (18-2, 10-0 ACC) at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Tip-off is set for 6:30 PM ET on ESPN.
UNC leads the all-time series 145-117, but Duke enters on a 14-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the nation. The past two seasons have seen each team sweep the season series, setting the stage for another intense clash.
UNC enters this matchup struggling, losing three of its last four, including a disappointing 73-65 defeat at Pitt, where the Tar Heels managed just 21 second-half points. This follows close losses to Wake Forest (67-66) and Stanford (72-71), highlighting a troubling trend of late-game inefficiency. Their lone win during this stretch came in overtime against lowly Boston College.
Despite their inconsistent play, UNC ranks 38th in KenPom, with the #49 offense and #48 defense, playing at the 18th-fastest tempo in the nation (third among Power 5 teams). Their offense relies on attacking the rim and drawing fouls, as they rank among the lowest in mid-range and three-point attempts while excelling in points in the paint and free throws.
The Tar Heels lack depth (268th in bench minutes) and size, with their tallest starter, 6’8” Ven-Allen Lubin, giving up several inches to Duke’s frontcourt. Star guard RJ Davis, in his fifth year, has struggled at Cameron Indoor, averaging just 10 PPG on 30% shooting in Durham. Sophomore PG Elliot Cadeau is a gifted playmaker (6.1 APG), while junior Seth Trimble (12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) brings a physical presence. Freshmen Ian Jackson (14.7 PPG) and Drake Powell (7.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG) provide additional scoring punch, but the lack of interior presence could prove costly.
Duke has not lost since November when it fell to #12 Kentucky and #11 Kansas in neutral-site games. The Blue Devils have since dominated and are powered by the nation’s #6 offense and #3 defense (KenPom). They excel from beyond the arc, shooting 36.3% while ranking top-20 in finishing at the rim.
A stark contrast to UNC’s up-tempo style, Duke plays at the 251st-ranked pace, imposing a methodical offensive approach while forcing opponents into slow, inefficient possessions. Their defensive identity revolves around elite rim protection, holding opponents to a nation-best 41% shooting inside the arc. Duke also limits free-throw opportunities, ensuring teams must earn their points from the field.
Despite their dominance, Duke ranks 261st in roster continuity, with only returning PG Tyrese Proctor (10.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG and 2.2 APG) and backup Caleb Foster (5.6 PPG) having played in this rivalry before. Proctor has been steady in two home games vs. UNC, averaging 12.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 4.0 APG.
Freshman sensation Cooper Flagg (19.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.1 APG) headlines the roster, showcasing a do-it-all skill set that makes him the certified No. 1 NBA Draft pick. Kon Kneuppel (13.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.6 APG) provides outside shooting, while 7’2” center Khaman Maluach (8.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 75.6 FG%) adds dominant rim protection and rebounding. Maluach’s offensive rebounding (2.5 per game) and interior efficiency could be pivotal against UNC’s lack of size.
This matchup presents a stylistic clash – UNC’s fast-paced, rim-attacking offense against Duke’s disciplined, defensive-minded approach. The Tar Heels must knock down outside shots at an uncharacteristically high rate to keep up with Duke’s ability to shoot from deep and counteract their size advantage in the paint and on the boards. Meanwhile, Duke should be able to control the tempo, get open looks from three and exploit UNC’s lack of size.
Duke enters as the clear favorite, but in this rivalry, anything can happen. If UNC’s guards can catch fire, they could keep things interesting. However, the Blue Devils’ superior interior presence, defensive discipline and overall efficiency give them the edge.
Maluach’s size advantage should be a major factor, particularly on the offensive glass and in transition opportunities. Expect the Duke big man to capitalize on high-percentage looks inside.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.