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While chalky, the 2025 NCAA Tournament has still delivered plenty of signature moments, breakout stars and March magic, and now it all comes down to one final clash between two of the sport’s best in San Antonio: Florida vs. Houston, tipping off at 8:50 PM ET tonight from the Alamodome. In a battle of tempo and toughness that could go down as a classic, it’s a matchup between the Gators’ elite shot-making, depth and size and the battle-tested Cougars’ elite defense, physicality and discipline.
Florida has been the tournament’s offensive darling, led by the electric play of Walter Clayton Jr., who enters the title game with 123 total points across five March Madness contests. Houston, meanwhile, has ground teams into submission, surviving a gauntlet that included a comeback win over Duke in the Last Four.
Something has to give, and we’re here to break it down.
No team has been more explosive and entertaining than the Florida Gators this March. After dispatching 16-seed Norfolk State with ease, they survived the two-time defending national champion UConn Huskies 77–75 in a Round of 32 thriller, rolled Maryland’s ‘Crab Five’ in the second half of the Sweet 16 – winning 87-71, then erased a 10-point deficit against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight with less than five minutes to play, thanks to Thomas Haugh and Clayton Jr.’s ridiculously clutch play, before knocking out top-seeded Auburn 79–73 to punch their ticket to the final and stand as the final SEC team remaining.
Clayton Jr.’s 34-point masterpiece against Auburn made him the first player since Larry Bird to post 30+ in both the Elite Eight and Final Four. He’s averaging 24.6 points per game in the tournament, up from 18.5 on the season.
But Florida’s March hasn’t been flawless. They’ve turned the ball over at a high clip – ranking 202nd in turnover rate since March 1. And yet, their high-octane offense, elite rebounding (39 boards against Auburn) and timely shot-making have consistently masked those flaws. Alijah Martin and Thomas Haugh have consistently proved their merit as secondary scorers, and the Gators have thrived from deep (38% on threes vs Auburn) and at the line (30 attempts in the semifinal).
Florida’s playing with confidence, rhythm, and pace – but they haven’t faced a defense or slow tempo like Houston’s.
If Florida’s identity is offense, Houston’s is defense. The Cougars have made a habit of winning rock fights, and their Final Four victory over Duke encapsulated their DNA: down late, they held the Blue Devils to one field goal over the final 10:30 and clawed their way back behind offensive rebounding and clutch perimeter shooting.
The Cougars dismantled Tennessee in the Elite Eight in a battle of like-minded teams, taking down the Vols 69-50. Houston barely survived its Round of 32 and Sweet 16 games, defeating Gonzaga and Purdue by a combined seven points, but the old adage is “Survive and Advance,” and that’s boded well for Houston during this run – a team that has stayed in the fight all 40 minutes of every game all season.
The Cougars are battle-tested, veteran-led and brutally disciplined. With J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis anchoring the paint, and star guards LJ Cryer (15.6 ppg), Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp knocking down timely shots (Houston went 10-for-22 from 3 vs Duke), Houston has struck a perfect balance between aggression and patience. They pulled in 18 offensive rebounds against Duke and limited a talented roster that’s littered with NBA-level talent to 67 points.
Houston’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks in the top five nationally, and they thrive on controlling tempo, forcing isolation play and eliminating easy looks. They’ve cleaned up their foul rate considerably over the past month and have looked composed in late-game situations. Cryer, a Baylor transfer with a title already under his belt, brings experience that can’t be overstated, and he has leveled up in March, pouring in 18.6 PPG in the tourney while hitting 19 three-pointers in five games.
This is a classic clash of styles: Florida wants a track meet; Houston wants a half-court chess match.
If the Gators can run, get to the free-throw line and make threes at their usual clip, they’ll keep Houston uncomfortable. Since March 1, Florida ranks 28th in free throw rate and 65th in 3-point attempt rate – both key areas against a Cougars defense that forces you into deep shots and rarely lets you get to the rim.
But the Cougars have advantages of their own. They force turnovers (a major Florida weakness), and their offensive rebounding should capitalize on Florida’s weak defensive rebounding and extend possessions, making the Gators uncomfortable in a slower game. Even though Florida has the size edge, Houston’s physicality and experience could prove more valuable in a half-court battle.
Expect Houston to muck it up. They’ll grind possessions, slow the pace and make Clayton work for every shot. This game could look eerily similar to the Duke matchup – a low-scoring affair decided by execution and poise.
Even in a low-scoring environment, we’re riding with Walter Clayton Jr. to eclipse the 20-point mark. He’s done it in four of five tournament games and is averaging nearly 25 in March. Houston will throw the kitchen sink at him defensively, but he’s shown the ability to hit contested shots, score off isolation and get to the line – a critical component against a handsy, physical defense like Houston’s.
This may be a rock fight, but Clayton Jr. is a certified shot-maker, and he’s going down swinging.
Zach has been a published sports writer since 2018 specializing in college football & basketball, MLB and NFL content for multiple publications.