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With the NFL regular season officially over, we can start looking ahead to the Wild Card matchups this weekend. The first game of the weekend takes place on Saturday afternoon. That game is an AFC matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Houston Texans.
We will break down everything you need to know about this matchup, recap their respective regular seasons and make a game pick.
It is fair to say that the first season under Jim Harbaugh was a success. The Chargers are back in the playoffs and finished with a record of 11-6, which was second-best in their division, just behind the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
With Harbaugh’s smash-mouth style of football, many thought that would hurt QB Justin Herbert’s offensive production. However, Herbert still threw for over 3,800 yards and 23 touchdowns, compared to just 3 interceptions. I know the numbers don’t show that this was his best season, but just by watching, you could tell he has complete control of this offense in year one of the Greg Roman offense.
Perhaps the best story from this Chargers season was the comeback of RB J.K. Dobbins. The former Baltimore Raven, who has dealt with multiple devastating injuries, had a tremendous year. In just 13 games, Dobbins rushed for 905 yards on 195 carries, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and he tied a career-high with nine touchdowns. It was great to see him bounce back in his career.
For pass-catchers, this offense was led by rookie WR Ladd McConkey. The impressive wideout had over 1,100 receiving yards on 82 catches and seven touchdowns. The second-round pick is already making teams regret passing on him.
WR Quentin Johnston also had a breakout season. He had a rough rookie season, and many were ready to write him off. However, the former first-round pick quieted his critics a bit by recording 711 receiving yards, 55 receptions and 8 touchdowns. This young wide receiver room was impressive this season.
Now, looking at the Texans, it was a wild ride for them to get to a 10-7 record. They won their division pretty handily, even though it wasn’t pretty at times. The offensive line struggled most of the year and they dealt with injuries. Two names that stand out are Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, both of whom went down with season-ending injuries.
With the offensive line struggling and wide receivers getting injured, second-year QB C.J. Stroud struggled as well. After a rookie season in which he threw for over 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns, those numbers went down. He threw for just 20 touchdowns and under 3,800 yards in two more games played.
Another reason for the dip in his numbers was the addition of Joe Mixon from the Cincinnati Bengals. He played in just 14 games this season and rushed for over 1,000 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns. Some thought Mixon was at the tail end of his career, but that’s not looking like the case.
As for the pass-catchers, this room was depleted. We already mentioned Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell going down with season-ending injuries. So, the room was once again led by Nico Collins, who also dealt with injury, playing in just 12 games. Collins still finished the season with over 1,000 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. I think it’s safe to say Collins is now a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL after back-to-back great seasons.
Now, to dive into this matchup between the Chargers and Texans. Both teams had some peaks and valleys throughout their seasons and were similar in some aspects. They like to play a similar style of offense: establish the run and work off the play-action passing game. On the defensive side, the Texans ranked second in DVOA, while the Chargers ranked 11th, which gives the Texans the edge there.
But there is one big difference I see between these two teams, and that is offensive line play. This is where the advantage lies for the Chargers. C.J. Stroud took 52 sacks this season, while Herbert took just 41. Khalil Mack and Nick Bosa can wreak havoc on the Texans’ offensive line in this matchup.
Along with the Chargers’ win, our Chargers @ Texans pick is going to be on Justin Herbert to throw for two or more touchdowns. He has done so in four straight games, and the Texans have given up the second-most passing touchdowns this season.
Dylan has had a love for sports since he was a kid. Four years ago, he decided to dive into the sports content-creating industry specializing in Fantasy Football, NFL and NBA. He has since had his work published on sites that include Fantasy Alarm, Fansided, and Fantasy Six Pack.