The NFL Christmas slate kicks off with a historic matchup between the 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs and the 10-5 Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. As both teams gear up for playoff pushes, this clash pits one of the league’s top defenses against a defense that thrives on turnovers. While the Chiefs are chasing their third straight Super Bowl, the Steelers are fighting to reclaim dominance in the AFC North.

Kansas City Chiefs Rolling into Pittsburgh

Kansas City enters this matchup with a commanding 14-1 record, having already secured the AFC West title. However, their season hasn’t been as dominant as their record suggests. Despite winning five straight games, three victories were decided by three points or less. The Chiefs’ lone loss came against the 12-3 Buffalo Bills, 30-21 in November.

Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs’ offense ranks 11th in scoring (23.7 points per game) and 13th in total yards. Mahomes has continued his winning ways, even in what some might call a down year statistically, with 3,608 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. While Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain the core of Kansas City’s passing game, the late-season addition of veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has stabilized the offense. Hopkins has 39 catches for 420 yards and 4 touchdowns since joining the team, complementing rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, who has emerged as a reliable target.

On the ground, the Chiefs’ running game has taken a step back. Isiah Pacheco has struggled since returning from a leg injury, and veteran Kareem Hunt has carried the load, amassing 708 rushing yards and six touchdowns. 

Defensively, the Chiefs have been outstanding. They rank third in scoring defense (18.5 points per game) and total yards allowed (307 per game), excelling against the run while showing slight vulnerability against the pass. That could create opportunities for Pittsburgh’s passing attack if their offensive weapons return to full strength.

Pittsburgh Steelers Look to Rebound

The Steelers are in a critical spot heading into Christmas, tied for the AFC North lead at 10-5. However, they’re trending in the wrong direction, losing two straight and three of their last five games. Most recently, Pittsburgh fell to Baltimore in a 34-17 loss, struggling to stop the run as Derrick Henry gashed them for 162 rushing yards.

Russell Wilson, who took over for Justin Fields at quarterback midseason, has been steady but not spectacular. Over his starts, Wilson has leaned heavily on star receiver George Pickens, who has 850 receiving yards on the season. Pickens missed the last three games but expects to return for this Christmas matchup, providing a much-needed spark to a passing attack that has been inconsistent without him.

On the ground, the Steelers’ rushing duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren has been held in check in recent weeks. Harris, with 938 yards on the season, will face one of the league’s toughest run defenses, forcing Pittsburgh to find success through the air.

Defensively, the Steelers rely on creating turnovers. Their +17 turnover margin ranks second in the NFL, and they’re allowing just 19.9 points per game. However, their pass defense ranks 20th in the league, which could spell trouble against Mahomes and the Chiefs’ aerial attack.

Chiefs vs Steelers Prediction

This matchup pits two teams with similar strengths but vastly different ceilings. Both statistically excel at stopping the run, so they will likely decide the game through the air. The Chiefs’ offense, led by Mahomes, is more efficient and balanced than Pittsburgh’s, giving Kansas City the edge.

The Steelers’ defense thrives on takeaways, but Mahomes’ ability to protect the ball in key moments may limit their opportunities. Expect Kansas City to control the game with their passing attack while Pittsburgh struggles to keep pace offensively, even with Pickens back in the lineup.

Given the Steelers’ stout run defense and their vulnerability against the pass, Mahomes should see plenty of opportunities to air it out. Look for him to eclipse 225 passing yards in a game where the Chiefs will likely rely on their quarterback to secure another win on their march toward the postseason.

Our Pick: Patrick Mahomes to Record 225+ Passing Yards