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With the college football regular season wrapped up, we can finally start looking ahead to the first-ever 12-team college football playoff bracket. Perhaps the most controversial matchup is the SMU Mustangs from the ACC taking on the Penn State Nittany Lions of the Big Ten.
It’s controversial because SMU received a playoff spot instead of Alabama. However, that is neither here nor there; it is time to preview this matchup. Throughout this article, we will provide a regular season recap for each team while making a game prediction.
SMU had a terrific first season in the ACC, finishing with a record of 11-2. Unfortunately for them and their fans, the season ended in a tough 34-31 loss to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship game.
This SMU team had a strong year through the air, led by quarterback Kevin Jennings. Jennings took over the starting role in September after a slow start to the season by then-starter Preston Jones. Jennings has now led the SMU passing offense to rank eighth in college football in points per game at 36.8. The passing game also ranks 13th in yards per attempt, so SMU is not afraid to take deep shots. Jennings finished the year with 22 touchdown passes to just 8 interceptions while also throwing for over 3,000 yards.
However, where SMU thrives is in the running game, led by senior running back Brashard Smith. Smith rushed for 1,270 yards and found the end zone 14 times on the ground. On top of that, Smith averaged an impressive 5.9 yards per carry. He is truly the biggest threat on this offense.
As for their defense, the SMU squad is solid. The defense ranks in the top 30 of college football in opponents’ points per game, yards per game, points per play, yards per play and red zone scoring. They excel in run defense, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, which is the third-best in all of college football. Let’s see how they stack up against a strong run game from Penn State.
Like SMU, Penn State also finished the season with an 11-2 record. They lost in the regular season to Ohio State, 20-13 and ended up losing the Big Ten Championship game to the Oregon Ducks, 45-37.
This Penn State offense is led by junior QB Drew Allar, who was one of the highest-rated quarterbacks out of his high school class. He led the Nittany Lions offense to rank in the top 25 in points per game, yards per game, yards per play and points per play. Allar had a solid year with a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, throwing 21 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He also posted a 69% completion percentage, which ranks 6th in the country.
However, the bread and butter of this offense is their running attack. They have two great RBs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They are the epitome of a two-headed monster, with both rushing for over 800 yards and a combined 13 touchdowns. That’s where Penn State wants to attack: rushing the ball on over 56% of their plays.
Although the running game is a large part of the offense, the passing game has also been effective. Tight end Tyler Warren was a big part of that as their leading pass-catcher and just won the first-ever Mackey Award in Penn State history as the nation’s best TE. He is a do-it-all type of guy, finishing with 88 catches for 1,062 yards and 6 TDs.
This is an exciting matchup between two teams that are fairly evenly matched on paper. SMU looks to prove everyone wrong who says Alabama should have gotten their spot over them, while James Franklin looks to win the biggest game of his career as the head coach of Penn State.
While researching the game, one thing we did not mention above that stands out is SMU’s pass defense. SMU has struggled through the air this season, ranking 94th in opponents’ passing yards per game. As mentioned earlier, Drew Allar has had a very solid season and is not afraid to take shots downfield. The Penn State offense is ranked ninth in yards per pass this season.
With all that said, our SMU vs Penn State pick is that Drew Allar will throw for more than 227 yards in this game, leading Penn State to victory.
Dylan has had a love for sports since he was a kid. Four years ago, he decided to dive into the sports content-creating industry specializing in Fantasy Football, NFL and NBA. He has since had his work published on sites that include Fantasy Alarm, Fansided, and Fantasy Six Pack.